Quarterly earnings from corporates, global trends, and trading activity of foreign investors will guide market sentiment this week, analysts said, adding that benchmark indices may face volatile trends. "The upcoming release of Q2 results will be closely watched, providing insights into corporate performance. "Meanwhile, the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran introduce a significant geopolitical risk, potentially leading to increased oil prices and market volatility.
'Despite the current uncertainties, the long-term outlook remains constructive due to strong fundamentals, government initiatives, and a stable banking sector.'
From the Sensex pack, IndusInd Bank, NTPC, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, Wipro, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were among the major laggards. HCL Technologies, Power Grid, Titan, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, Tata Steel, State Bank of India and Mahindra & Mahindra were the gainers.
The broader NSE Nifty went up to a fresh life-time high of 10,494.45, but failed to stay on the top as it slipped and closed down 19 points, or 0.18 per cent, at 10,444.20.
Public sector banks (PSBs) have delivered significant outperformance over the past three years and the sector has been re-rated. Given the growth and profitability expectations of an 18 per cent return on equity (RoE) over FY24-26, there is still a case for buying at the current levels. While the net interest margins or NIMs may remain range-bound or have a downward bias, there's optimism about possibly better opex ratios and lower non-performing assets (NPAs), plus scope for further credit cost reduction, and healthy treasury performances as interest rates trend down.
Fundraising through qualified institutional placement (QIP) has revived this year, led by commercial banks, after a lacklustre 2022. According to data compiled by Prime Database, Indian companies have raised Rs 53,070 crore in 2023 so far, of which seven banks - Union Bank of India, Indian Bank, Bank of India, Federal Bank, IDFC First Bank, Bank of Maharashtra, and J&K Bank - account for Rs 21,290 crore, or about 40 per cent. If other financial institutions are included, the figure surges to Rs 26,690 crore.
Investors' wealth eroded by a whopping Rs 7.15 lakh crore during the morning trade on Friday as equity markets tumbled, driven by sharp fall in IndusInd Bank shares and unabated foreign fund outflows. The BSE Sensex tanked 708.69 points to 79,356.47 and the NSE Nifty plunged 286.35 points to 24,113.05. Tracking the weak trend in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms tumbled Rs 715,739.19 crore to Rs 4,36,63,565.73 crore ($5.19 trillion) during the morning trade.
Among the Sensex pack, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India and Titan were the biggest laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, HCL Technologies and Tata Steel were the biggest gainers.
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
Sensex drops 138 points on foreign fund outflow
The IPO filing-to-approval lapsing ratio this year is the best in three years, underscoring the improvement in the IPO market's buoyancy.
From the Sensex stocks, Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Motors, JSW Steel, Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Mahindra and Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies and Infosys were the laggards. HDFC Bank, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Nestle India and Asian Paints were among the gainers.
From the Sensex pack, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zones, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. In contrast, Tata Steel, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, JSW Steel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Tata Motors and Tata Consultancy Services were among the laggards.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
The Nifty Bank index has come off 15 per cent from its peak in February, underperforming the benchmark Nifty which is down 6%.
Among the Sensex firms, JSW Steel, Titan, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Maruti, State Bank of India and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
'The shifts in US involvement in global conflicts and geopolitical alliances could introduce uncertainties.'
Among the Sensex firms, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors, Asian Paints, ITC, IndusInd Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Wipro, Infosys and Maruti were the major gainers. Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Titan and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards.
If technical analysts are to be believed, the index has more room for a slide down to 72,000 levels in the worst-case scenario, wiping out all the gains made in 2024 so far.
Among the Sensex firms, Titan, Asian Paints, ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Bajaj Finserv and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers. In contrast, UltraTech Cement, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, Power Grid, HDFC Bank, HCL Technology, State Bank of India and ICICI Bank were the laggards.
Among the Sensex firms, Power Grid, UltraTech Cement, Titan, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, ITC and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. HCL Technologies, IndusInd Bank, Wipro, Nestle, Maruti, Larsen & Toubro and Asian Paints were among the gainers.
Equity benchmarks bounced back sharply on Friday after facing a heavy drubbing in the previous trade, with the Sensex and Nifty jumping nearly 3 per cent, aided by positive trends from global markets and across-the-board buying. Index majors Reliance Industries and HDFC twins saw robust buying, helping the benchmarks. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 1,534.16 points or 2.91 per cent to settle at 54,326.39.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank was the biggest loser and fell 6.13 per cent, followed by SBI (3.99 pc), Hindustan Unilever (3.82 pc), Axis Bank (3.41 pc) and HDFC Bank (3.23 pc). In contrast, Sun Pharma, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and PowerGrid defied the trend and closed with gains of up to 3.67 per cent. TCS and Bajaj Finserve were the other gainers.
With the Nifty50 just about 3 per cent away from its all-time closing high of 18,812 points, analysts at BofA Securities suggest investors book profit. Their reasons for the advice include risks like the possibility of a cut in corporate earnings growth forecasts, high valuation (one-year forward P/E of 19.5x), interest rates staying elevated for longer-than-expected and credit tightening. Going ahead, they expect the Nifty50 index to drop to 16,000 levels - down nearly 12 per cent from the current level of 18,255 points, which they believe would be a good time to buy.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty Next 50 Index could undergo large-scale changes if the proposed tweaks to its computation methodology get implemented. In a discussion paper floated recently, NSE Indices, which owns and manages a portfolio of over 350 indices under the Nifty brand, proposed that only stocks that are traded in the futures and options (F&O) segment can be part of the index. Currently, as many as 11 non-F&O stocks are part of the Nifty Next 50 Index, which, as the name suggests, represents the next rung of large and liquid securities after the Nifty50.
Benchmark BSE Sensex and Nifty ended lower on Wednesday, dragged down by losses in banking stocks amid weak global market trends. The 30-share Sensex declined by 168.08 points or 0.28 per cent to settle at 59,028.91. During the day, it fell 474.1 points or 0.80 per cent to 58,722.89. The broader NSE Nifty dipped 31.20 points or 0.18 per cent to 17,624.40.
Most of the Sensex firms settled in the positive territory. Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, JSW Steel, State Bank of India, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries and Infosys were the biggest gainers. Kotak Mahindra Bank and Maruti were the laggards.
Among the 30 Sensex firms, Asian Paints, Infosys, JSW Steel, UltraTech Cement, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, HCL Technologies and Tata Steel were the biggest laggards. Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, ITC, IndusInd Bank and Axis Bank were the gainers.
The Sensex and Nifty ended at fresh lifetime peaks on Tuesday amid a largely firm trend in other Asian markets and continuous foreign fund inflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex gained 177.04 points or 0.28 per cent to settle at 62,681.84, its fresh record closing high. During the day, it jumped 382.6 points or 0.61 per cent to its lifetime intra-day peak of 62,887.40.
Despite rising interest rates, and high inflation, the banking sector is doing well, on the back of a recovering economy. The last couple of quarters indicate credit demand is picking up and Return on Assets (RoA) is more than acceptable at the moment. The PSU bank pack may be more interesting at the moment simply due to being valued at far lower multiples than the private banks.
IndusInd Bank was the biggest gainer in the Sensex pack, rising 3.25 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra, Wipro, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, HDFC Bank, RIL, TCS, L&T and Infosys. State Bank of India, NTPC, Maruti, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors and Power Grid were among the laggards, slipping up to 2.94 per cent.
'Over the next 12 months, it will be difficult to make 15 to 20 per cent return in the markets as the valuations appear stretched.'
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
Growth in corporate profits needs to be commensurate with wages to boost the economy, Economic Survey 2024-25 said, noting that sharp disparities between the two pose risk to the economy by curbing demand. The document tabled in Parliament on Friday noted that while the labour share of GVA (gross value added) shows a slight uptick, the disproportionate rise in corporate profitsredominantly among large firmsaises concerns about income inequality.
Back home, the Nifty IT index - a gauge of the performance of the IT stocks on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) that has closely mirrored the performance of NASDAQ over the past few years - has lost nearly 2 per cent in CY23.
Among Sensex shares, Hindustan Unilever, Bharti Airtel, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, ICICI Bank, ITC and Asian Paints were the biggest winners. On the other hand, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Reliance Industries, NTPC, UltraTech Cement and Power Grid were among the laggards.
ITC, State Bank of India, HCL Technologies and IndusInd Bank were the other big laggards. NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HDFC Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the gainers.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Benchmark Sensex pared early losses to close 242 points higher while Nifty settled above the 18,000-mark on Wednesday following gains in IT, oil and select banking stocks amid mixed global trends. Extending gains for a second day, the 30-share BSE Sensex advanced 242.83 points or 0.40 per cent to close at 61,275.09 with 20 of its constituents ending in the green. The index opened lower at 60,990.05 but later regained foot to touch a high of 61,352.55 in day trade.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty slumped over 1 per cent on Friday, tracking a weak trend in global markets and fresh foreign fund outflows. Falling for the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,017.23 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 81,183.93.
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